DOH worries over surge in Covid cases

CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY - The Department of Health (DOH) said it is closely monitoring the Covid-19 situation in the country and immediately flagging areas with increases in rates of virus transmission based on two-week growth rates (TWGR) in affected population as per average daily attack rate (ADAR).

It also noted the observations of independent expert groups, but maintains that such observations should be carefully verified.

Based on current data analysis by the DOH Epidemiology Bureau and FASSSTER, the National Capital Region is showing a 19% increase for its TWGR and ADAR of 6 cases per 100,000 population, which is at moderate risk.

While Makati, Las Piñas, Pasay, Pasig, Taguig, Paranaque, Manila, Valenzuela, Navotas, Marikina, and Caloocan all have positive TWGR - a trend reversal from negative two-week growth rates 3-4 weeks ago. Additionally, Makati, Las Piñas, and Pasay have high risk ADAR.

FASSSTER refers to the application “Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler.” It was developed by the Ateneo de Manila University for visualizing the spread of diseases, using data from the Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response system, Electronic Medical Records, and SMS-based reports of primary care facilities.

“In terms of our health care capacity, nationally we are seeing low health care and intensive care utilization rate. We are also closely monitoring pending ER admissions. While we have enough capacity as of now as evidenced by the low risk HCUR and ICUR, we must continue our preparations to strengthen local health system capacities and further augment the needed resources to maintain these low risk levels. We need to make sure that we have enough capacity to cope with the demand in the event that cases continue their upward trend,” said DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.

HCUR refers to “health care utilization rate” ICUR means “intensive care unit utilization rate,” and ER is short for “emergency room.”

Vergeire said the DOH works closely with the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Metro Manila Center for Health Development, Regional Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, and City Epidemiology and Surveillance Units to ensure that these signals of increase in cases are immediately flagged, investigated, and addressed as soon as possible.

“We acknowledge that there is an increase of our case metrics which is why we urge people to continue adhering to the minimum health standards and get vaccinated, and for our local government units to strictly implement our protocols. Otherwise, we might see daily active cases in NCR to reach 11,000 by the end of September 2021 based on the projections calculated by FASSSTER with the assumption that the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible, a conservative estimate of how fast the Delta variant will spread,” she said.

She said the DOH values the work of independent experts, but appealed to them to be more careful in making pronouncements in terms of the national situation, as this may cause more panic and fear. “While we acknowledge the differences in the metrics and methods of analysis used by these independent groups, we share the same goal to keep the case numbers down and improve the healthcare system of the country,” Vergeire said.

The DOH has been accused by some “independent experts” of underreporting Covid-19 cases in the country, especially now that there are over 100 cases of the Delta variants. The lack of vaccine supplies despite the huge amount of loans from local and foreign creditors for the purchase of Covid-19 vaccines is also among the many issues raised against the DOH. (Mindanao Examiner)

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